Chances are

[monapyleung]

Imagine what would happen if the world really was going to end on October 26, 2028. Here are some of the consequences that one journalist at The Scotsman imagined.

People might migrate to high altitudes like Tibet.
Wealthy people will arrange to be deep-frozen.


First, there will be an elevated sea level that made most small islands disappear. Big cities like New York, Hong Kong, London disappeared and took up by seawaves. Global warming melted the whole arctic and no more ice was there. Scientist started to explore living undersea. Wealthy people chose to be deep-frozen until the time when the global disaster was solved. As all fossil fuels ran out, the earth depended on recycled energy source and solar energy to keep things going. Energy was as expensive as gold. Hugh famine resulted as cultivation of crops was much affected by drastic weather change and as land area was diminished, people depended on synthetic food, man-made protein to sustain livelihood. As what the Bible said, there would be frequent earthquakes, natural disasters, warfares, the world would go into turmoils and unrest.

[monapyleung]

Knowing the risks involved, why do people:
1. smoke?
2. sunbathe?
3. do adventure sports?
4. ride motorbikes?

First of all, people prefer quality of life over length of lifespan. They regard smoking, sunbathing, adventure sports, motorbike riding as elements of a good quality of life. Therefore they prefer taking these life threatening activities to keeping a long lifespan
Secondly, the ‘hazards’ that these activities pose are not instantaneous. Like smoking and sunbathing, some of the activities take long duration for the deterrent or even fatal effects, like cancers, to appear. Some activities, like adventure sports and motorcycling, do not necessarily lead to fatal consequences caused by accidents.

[monapyleung]

Knowing the risks involved, why do people:
1. smoke?
2. sunbathe?
3. do adventure sports?
4. ride motorbikes?

First of all, people prefer quality of life over length of lifespan. They regard smoking, sunbathing, adventure sports, motorbike riding as elements of a good quality of life. Therefore they prefer taking these life threatening activities to keeping a long lifespan
Secondly, the ‘hazards’ that these activities pose are not instantaneous. Like smoking and sunbathing, some of the activities take long duration for the deterrent or even fatal effects, like cancers, to appear. Some activities, like adventure sports and motorcycling, do not necessarily lead to fatal consequences caused by accidents.

[monapyleung]

1. What's the difference between an asteroid, a comet and a meteorite?

An asteroid is any of numerous small planetary bodies that revolve around the sun.

A comet is a celestial body, observed only in that part of its orbit that is relatively close to the sun, having a head consisting of a solid nucleus surrounded by a nebulous coma up to 2.4 million kilometers (1.5 million miles) in diameter and an elongated curved vapor tail arising from the coma when sufficiently close to the sun. Comets are thought to consist chiefly of ammonia, methane, carbon dioxide, and water.

A meteorite is a natural object originating in outer space that survives impact with the Earth's surface. Most meteorites derive from small astronomical objects called meteoroids, but they are also sometimes produced by impacts of asteroids

2. Has our planet been hit by a very big asteroid before? When and where did the impact(s) happen, and what were the consequences?

The Tunguska Event, or Tunguska explosion, was a powerful explosion that occurred near the Podkamennaya (Lower Stony) Tunguska River in what is now Krasnoyarsk Krai of Russia, at 0 hours 13 minutes 35 seconds Greenwich Mean Time on June 30, 1908.

Although the cause of the explosion is the subject of debate, it is commonly believed to have been caused by the air burst of a large meteoroid or comet fragment at an altitude of 5–10 kilometres (3.1–6.2 mi) above the Earth's surface. Different studies have yielded varying estimates of the object's size, with general agreement that it was a few tens of metres across.
Although the meteor or comet burst in the air rather than directly hitting the surface, this event is still referred to as an impact. Estimates of the energy of the blast range from 5 megatons of TNT to as high as 30 megatons of TNT, with 10–15 megatons of TNT the most likely —roughly equal to the United States' Castle Bravo thermonuclear bomb tested on March 1, 1954, about 1,000 times as powerful as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan and about one-third the power of the Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated. The explosion knocked over an estimated 80 million trees over 2,150 square kilometres (830 sq mi). It is estimated that the shockwave from the blast would have measured 5.0 on the Richter scale. An explosion of this magnitude is capable of destroying a large metropolitan area. This possibility has helped to spark discussion of asteroid deflection strategies.
The Tunguska event is the largest impact event over land in Earth's recent history. Impacts of similar size over remote ocean areas would have gone unnoticed before the advent of global satellite monitoring in the 1960s and 1970s.

3. Are there any asteroids that scientists believe could hit Earth?

2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029."

4. Have any films been made about an asteroid impact with Earth? What are they called?

examples are:
Asteroid
Deep impact
Armageddon

They are very good movies and worth viewing again though they were produced rather a long time ago.

[monapyleung]

My story - (b)

When I came to learn about the end-of-world disaster, I made a private hideaway in a small village in Yunnan, China. It’s a small bungalow with a large built-in underground shelter, with storage of three months' stock of consumables including food, water, oxygen supplies, medicine and daily necessities. I brought my family there to hide away from the asteroid that was said to hit directly the earth very soon. We would be allowed to survive with the most limited resources.

People took chance to break into shops and restaurants to steal and rob, which create chaos everywhere. The airport was filled with distressed, screaming people who would pay any price to get a ticket to an island of their choice in order to stand a chance of survival. There were armies and police officers everywhere, as they had taken the oath to carry on with their duties until the last day of the earth. Thousands of Christians and believers of other religions gathered and made camps at different places including mountains, churches, seaside, etc to wait for God to take them to heaven. It was indeed a scene never witnessed by anyone in the past. We managed to get the tickets and flew to our destination. Finally we got settled in our small shelter.

Time passed slowly and then there was a sudden ‘bang’ sound which kept echoing for a long while. I knew that the impact took place. It was only after half a month later when I dared to come out from the rubbles to see what was going on. It was like a scene from ‘the day after tomorrow’. I managed to find other survivors and with the aid of the government we struggled to turn a new page ahead with what was left behind.

[Lucy (tutor)]

Hi monapyleung,

Thanks for posting about all these topics from the unit. It's very interesting to read, especially your story about what happened in the disaster.